Figure 3 – An abstract depiction of the Revolutionary Theory
Emissions try an excellent proxy to have fossil fuels consumption

2 emissions (black line). At a future inflection point, emissions begin to decline as economic growth continues. A third alternative, a reduction in the carbon intensity (C/GDP) of economic growth, is also shown (dashed line). In this case, economic and emissions growth are still tightly linked; only the rate (slope) of positive emissions growth has changedpare Figure 2 above.

Hence the new Revolutionary Theory denies the requirement you to growing emissions of fossil fuel was in fact a required updates for financial development, that can end up being mentioned as in (3).

Figure 4 – CO2 emissions in the United States since 1980 (based on the EIA data cited above) compared with recessions (gray bars). Recessions are defined according to the widely recognized National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle data.

The tendency for emissions to decline during recessions is most pronounced during the severe dual recession in the 1980’s and the current “Great” recession. Interestingly, emission declines continued between the recessions in the early 1980s, and started to decline before the short-lived recessions of 1991-1992 and 2001, which implies that economic activity had slowed before the NBER officially recognized this condition. This phenomenon requires more study, but otherwise the historical pattern does not contradict Rule (2)-if anthropogenic CO2 emissions are not growing, the economy is in recession. On longer time scales, the overall historical trend is absolutely clear as shown in Figure 2.

In the event the Revolutionary Hypothesis is actually not the case, meaning ascending anthropogenic pollutants can’t be unlinked off monetary gains, exactly what consequences you’ll we predict? There was a very quantity of bad results for upcoming use of fossil fuel on SRES weather conditions. The fresh bad instance is named organization-as-usual (BAU), however, faster carbon dioxide-intense pathways also are you’ll. Consequences are given conceptually into the Figure 5.

Figure 5 – A truncated range of SRES outcomes if the Radical Hypothesis is false (i.e. there is no inflection point as in Figure 3.) The CO2 emissions curve (black line) illustrates a worst-case business-as-usual scenario for anthropogenic emissions. The dashed line illustrates a less carbon-intensive scenario in which the rate of positive emissions growth declines as in Figure 3 above.

Financial development (dotted range) has always been accompanied by development in CO

The brand new Radical Hypothesis consensus sleeps abreast of expectation (4) (and humorously, Figure 6). We call (4) the belief from Technological Advances (ATP)

(4) Technical improvements marches on the. Improvements will always be enough to be considered out-of monetary extension, or push one extension. This type of developments include, first of all, civilization’s requirement for times to electricity development. Particularly, websites opportunity yields on resource (EROI) getting currently ineffective techniques (age.g. biomass to cellulosic ethanol sales) do not count since they are based on latest science technology.

Brand new ATP is actually common. Profitable environment minimization scenarios interest they myself, but therefore conduct business-as-typical problems. Perhaps the simply biggercity meaningful difference in this type of times is the studies out-of technological improvements that is thought. That is real into the as far as the newest Revolutionary Theory appears to need much better development than just team-as-common, that is by itself tricky as soon as we glance at financing destruction (e.g. getting old-fashioned crude petroleum) from the contact out-of latest research tech.

When you look at the BAU conditions, it is assumed one to technical advances will improve the performance of current Coal-To-Liquid (CTL) tech, or extraction efficiency various other portion (e.grams. for tar sands petroleum, when you look at the old-fashioned oils extraction, from inside the biomass so you can drinking water conversions, or perhaps in producing liquid fuels regarding oils shales).

Within inflection section and “forever” immediately following regarding Radical (conventional) consider, technical improvements permit the decoupling away from monetary development from fossil fuel practices. Such as for instance, wind or solar power have a tendency to exchange coal, biofuels or digital vehicles usually change petroleum, etc.